ATM/MPO 713: Predictability
Spring Semester 2019
Draft of topics to be covered:
- History and Overview of Numerical Weather Prediction Systems
- Lorenz (1963, 1965, 1969, 1982): Predictability and Error Growth
- Tangent Linear and Adjoint models
- Singular Vectors
- Stability and Bifurcations
- EOFs
- Ensemble Prediction Methods
- New Perspectives on Predictability
- Probabilistic State Estimation
- Least Squares / Maximum Likelihood /
- Data Assimilation
- Optimal Interpolation
- 3d-Var and 4d-Var
- Ensemble Kalman Filters
- Hybrid Filters
- Non-linear Filters
- Ensemble Sensitivity
- Observation Impact
- Uncertainty Quantification
- Mesoscale Predictability
- Extending Predictability out to Subseasonal and Seasonal Time Scales
3 course projects:
- Lorenz predictability
- State Estimation
- Predictability Concepts in Complex Models
No exams
